Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Major influence on winter weather is already changing... take a look

With fall weather arriving and so many people coming by our KWCH booth on the fairgrounds asking about winter, I figured it was appropriate to post an update on this. Nearly a month ago, it had looked like La Nina was going to be a rather significant influence on the weather pattern heading into fall and winter. You might remember that nearly a year ago at this time we were talking about a HUGE El Nino.

Here's the difference between them:
El Nino - unseasonably warm water in the Pacific along the Equator
La Nina - unseasonably cool water in the Pacific along the Equator

Check the latest satellite image to show there is cool water gathering near the Equator, but it's not expected to strengthen much. So as we move through fall and winter, we will be looking at borderline "La Nina" conditions. The La Nina watch has been dropped at this time.

Even if we had a clear signal right now on La Nina, we still wouldn't know with 100% accuracy what the winter would have in store. It's a very complex prediction to make when it comes to seasonal forecasts. So stay tuned.

More rain soon..
We still expect the majority of our rain this week to arrive tomorrow (Thursday) and continue Thursday night/early Friday. We haven't seen much the last 2-3 days, but we still have a stormy setup coming. Be on the lookout for some widespread rains, especially east of a line from Hays to Dodge City, where several areas could see over an inch. It would only take about 1-2 inches in a few hours to create flash flooding. Rain begins to move out over the weekend. We need about a month to dry out, but that's not going to happen for awhile.

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