Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Ice storm still expected

As we get closer to the weekend storm, we are learning more about its potential with every new bit of model data coming in. We are still forecasting a storm that is very much in its infancy and still over the Pacific Ocean. One of the things that will help as soon as this storm moves over land is we can sample it with weather balloons. That will help fine tune our forecasts even more. In Kansas, weather balloons are launched at 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. both at Dodge City and Topeka. This is what they look like.

Because this is a fairly large storm, it will likely be slower to move through the area. But here's where we are with respect to confidence on this storm:

The morning and afternoon drive on Friday should be okay. The storm is coming in a little slower, but we still expect the icy weather to come up from the south. Our latest Future Track model shows the ice beginning in south central and southeast Kansas. It will take awhile to spread north, but should do so heading into Saturday evening.

I'm expecting temperatures to warm up above freezing over central and eastern Kansas by Sunday, so there will be a changeover to rain. However, western Kansas may continue to deal with icy roads.

Will there be snow? Yes - I believe there will be snow, but that will be very limited to far western Kansas late Sunday night & early Monday. It could be several inches too, and we will focus on this part of the storm in the coming days.

DID YOU KNOW - through the process of freezing, heat is actually given off? That's right, it's a process that we study in meteorology, and it may actually help to erode some of the colder temperatures that we have around this weekend. The air above us is still key in figuring out what kind of precipitation falls. Because there is so much warm air over Kansas this weekend, we expect either rain, freezing, or sleet. It's nowhere close enough to have snow through Sunday evening.

We will be back on Facebook Live today at 10 a.m. and again tonight at 8 p.m. This is a good chance to ask questions about the storm. We will do our best to help you plan ahead. While this may not be a historic ice storm for the area, it will certainly cause some major headaches for Kansans this weekend.

No comments:

Blog History