Monday, August 28, 2017

Why isn't Harvey moving?

Our hearts go out to the people in Houston dealing with catastrophic flooding and something never seen before in recorded history. One of the biggest questions I've been asked lately is why isn't the storm moving. And what does it take to get 50" of rain?

First, let's look at some of the radar estimates, and this is only from the last 3 days. 


Why is Harvey stalling?
This tropical system is caught in an area of opposing wind directions in the atmosphere. There's a BIG "H" over Utah with winds blowing clockwise around it. There's also a big "H" just east of the Bahamas. These large high pressure systems are creating a logjam in the atmosphere, so there's no change taking place. This is also why our weather in Kansas won't change at all this week. Nothing's moving right now.

Getting 50 inches of rain needs an unlimited moisture source:
The Gulf of Mexico continues to supply Harvey with unlimited supply of moisture that's getting turned into the heavy rain. That's the source region for our big rain producing storms here in Kansas, but Harvey is hogging the moisture. The wind flow is coming right off the Gulf from the south, so there continues to be an endless supply for this storm.


Will this system reach Kansas?
Still not likely, although one computer model shows it coming as far north as Oklahoma by the time it gets absorbed. If this storm DOES make it this far north, it's going to be getting ripped apart by stronger winds and won't likely have much of an impact here.

1 comment:

heatnhumidity said...

Excellent and thorough! Thank you.

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