Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Why so active/severe threat & more

Big severe storms today in Nebraska and northern Missouri
One of my Twitter followers asked me yesterday to go into some detail as to why our weather pattern is so active for the rest of the week. So we are taking a closer look at that today and this will hopefully explain why we feel confident in more widespread rains later in the week. First, we examine the upper pattern and discover that our main branch of wind is coming out of the southwest, and that will carry several storm systems through our area. Take a look at the series of low pressures I have marked on the map. The lead "L" if you will, is going to set off widespread severe storms in Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and into Missouri. Damaging storms are likely in those areas, while for much of Kansas, it's just a hot and windy day.
Series of systems coming in from the southwest US. It will keep us very active

2nd "L": Likely impacting Kansas heading into Wednesday night, bringing storms to western and central Kansas after midnight. Storms will be ongoing Thursday morning, especially in central and south central Kansas. Some of these storms could produce some hail and gusty winds.

3rd "L": Another system will be coming through the pattern Thursday afternoon. It looks like it could set off storms in NW Kansas, and then those will push to the southeast heading into Thursday night/Friday morning. The best chance for storms Friday morning will be south of a line from Garden City to Great Bend to Emporia. But more storms will develop Friday evening/night around the state.

4th "L": This is a system that will be coming through Friday and should help produce widespread storms, once again across most of the state. Some of the heaviest rainfall may be in central and southern Kansas.

5th "L": The last of the systems coming through this pattern will be here Saturday. I'm forecasting storms that should stretch from one side of the state to another, and should dump some very heavy rainfall once again.

Severe threat for Wednesday night/Thursday morning
Will the storms be severe? That is a strong possibility given the amount of humidity in the atmosphere and time of year. Hail and wind will be the primary concerns. It's really hard to even think about flooding, but it's something to be mindful of if you have already had some very heavy rains. I don't think it would be a bad thing at all to run some water through our creeks and rivers, and fill the farm ponds again. This is necessary moisture going into the summer months, and a huge step in keeping temperatures out of the triple digits day after day later on in July/August. June is typically one of the wettest months on record, and it looks like we are off to a great start. I'm updating the rainfall forecast. It is a forecast through Monday, 7 p.m. and it still shows widespread moisture. Remember, it's a forecast and not a guarantee, but with several more chances to get wet, I think there is good reason to believe it's accurate.
Forecast for rainfall (ending Monday, June 9)

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