Friday, October 16, 2015

Another winter forecast released

First frost of the season courtesy @gracy69epixnet
On Thursday, we heard from the Climate Prediction Center on their outlook for the winter months. No real surprises in what they are thinking considering the strong El Nino phenomenon that has setup in the Pacific. We are still looking at other information and trying to pin down a more precise forecast for Kansas, and we will release it in November. The pattern up to now has been warm and dry, but within the next few weeks, it will be turning more active with increasing chances for moisture.

A wetter than normal winter across the southern tier of the US with a more active southern branch of the jet stream.

Cooler than normal across the south (where more moisture is expected to fall), while the northern tier of the US is expected to be warmer than normal. Kansas falls into the "equal chances" of above or below normal temperatures.

There are a bunch of winter forecasts out there on the internet, so be sure to check the source before putting much value in what you are seeing/reading.  Have a great weekend.


Robert Atkisson said...

My forecast is for a warm wet winter.Lows in the 50,s high in the 70,s I WISH!!!!! Never hurts to wish

Tracy said...

So... looking back at this now that winter is almost over -- does this mean that they are reading too much into the El Nino effect? We did NOT get the "wetter" winter at all -- it has been much drier than normal. I went back and reviewed several different winter forecasts on weather sites (as well as yours) and they were all wrong, basing on El Nino. So what does that tell us?

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