Monday, October 19, 2015

Big changes this week - rain finally coming!

Mexico, NY - courtesy Maria Molina
courtesy Becky Elliott - Clearfield, PA
The weather is definitely in transition and it started over the weekend. Some of the first snows of the season showed up in the northeast and there were reports of accumulations in Pennsylvania and upstate New York. Mexico, NY had 9 inches of the white stuff. It's not unusual considering it's mid October. Even Goodland averages a little more than 2 inches of snow in October, but we don't see anything like that on the horizon.

Our weather pattern looks so much different this week and it's about time. The numbers aren't exactly earth shattering, but since September 1st, rainfall has been spotty at best.
Wichita: 2.80" (normal is 4.86")
Salina: 1.73" (normal is 4.09")
Dodge City: 1.68" (normal 2.72")
Goodland: 1.41" (normal 2.06")

(click on any image to make it larger)

One particular satellite image (called water vapor) shows a nice storm over the western US and we think it will latch on to some rich, deep Gulf of Mexico moisture by mid-late week. We haven't had a moisture connection quite like this in a long time, so the setup (at least on paper and computer) looks favorable for rain and isolated storms. There won't be any snow with this particular storm system.

GFS model
European model
One forecast model shows widespread 1-3 inch amounts, while the other has a little less. Regardless of which set of data is right, we stand a very good chance for beneficial moisture this week.

Interestingly enough, all of the cold air is still locked way up north in Canada. There won't be any unusual cold snaps for awhile (maybe 8-10 days or longer) and the threat of a widespread, hard freeze continues to be on hold for the foreseeable future.

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