Friday, January 29, 2016

Latest winter storm tracks


Friday is finally here and it's going to be a very nice day around the state. No doubt, this kind of weather causes spring fever, and then you realize it's late January and it snaps us back to reality. If you like warmer weather, enjoy it while you can. I say that because I know there are still so many of you cheering for a snow storm before winter is all over with.

Yesterday, I tried to highlight our different levels of confidence with the approaching storm. We do know there will be a storm early next week and it's going to have a huge impact in the Plains. How much snow is also becoming more clear too, and for some, it's going to be quite a bit. The track of the storm is still very much key. Computer models were trending back north a bit yesterday, but now they are just a little farther south. Based on everything that I've looked at, it's looking like western, central, and northern Kansas should be ready for the heaviest (8" of snow or more). This will include Dodge City, Hays, Goodland, Colby, Russell, Salina, Great Bend (just to name a few)

The two models we base our forecast so heavily on is the GFS (Global Forecast System) and the European model. 
The track of the low on the European model takes the low from near Amarillo to Wichita Falls, then up to around Tulsa, and then on to KC. 

The GFS model is a little north of that track, taking the low from Amarillo to Wichita, then over into western Missouri. Heaviest snows will likely occur 100-200 miles north of the low. 

Regardless of how much snow we do or don't get, we won't miss the wind and cold. Be ready for subzero wind chills by the middle of next week. It will be getting very cold with our 3rd blast of Arctic air coming south. 

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