Thursday, January 28, 2016

Winter storm potential next week

David Doan - Bel Aire
Welcome to Thursday everyone. I hope everyone is having a nice week. I suppose if we took a survey, the majority would choose 60 degree weather over the snow that is in the forecast. But I continue to hear from the snow-lovers requesting at least one or two more good winter storms before spring arrives. 

Some of us just haven't been in the right spot for snow this winter. We've had  some good moisture. In fact, both Salina and Wichita have had more than 6.50 inches of moisture since November 1st. But we've also had enough warm weather to keep most of it in the liquid form. 

Will the storm next week be a big snow maker? Simply put, we don't know yet to say one way or the other. The storm hasn't even developed yet, so we don't have a good handle on the full potential. But, confidence is high that there will be a storm and it will turn much colder next week. Confidence is medium that we will have moisture in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Where the confidence drops off is in the track of the storm and how much snow we will get. 

GFS model
European model
Regardless of the storm track, much colder air is coming!
Here are two possible tracks from the computer models this morning. One going farther south and the other one farther north. If the southern track is correct, most of Kansas will stand a good chance of accumulating snow and near blizzard like conditions. If the northern track is the one, heavier snow will be north with drier air limiting the snow amounts for most of the state. 
I'll keep you updated on the trends.


Linda Tillman said...

I really could live without the snow. The cold is enough.

Unknown said...

So, long story short, you have no idea whether we'll get snow or not next week. One model shows we will get tons of snow, while the other shows we'll probably get none or almost none. Is that fair?

Anonymous said...

Thanks Ross, for doin your best to keep us safe & infomed! KWCH is the only local channel we watch & trust! Kudos to all the meteorologists @ channel 12! Millie, Ross, Mark, Merril, Rodney & Dean! I live in Cottonwood Falls, & I have all 52 years of my life! Some of my fellow citizens say you guys always stand right in front of "us" on the map, & never mention us!! But, as long as you mention the Flint Hills, Emporia, or Matfield Green, I know you have us covered!! Thanks again---Anita Hensley.

Judy Herrin said...

Thanks Ross Would like to see 1 nice snow without ice..but as long as everyone is safe..always depend on KWCH for our weather!

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