Thursday, October 20, 2016

Where is our next storm... and is someone talking about snow?

Sure seems like we've had some nice fall weather, but it never wants to hang around for very long. Take for example today... highs in the 60s, but already looking at the next big weather pattern change for the weekend and it spells WARM! Once again, we will find ourselves in no man's land when it comes to stormy weather, rain, or cool, fall weather. Highs will be running about 10-15 degrees above normal as the jet stream (or storm track) goes back north.

What's the outlook for rain next week? Parts of western Kansas have gone nearly 50 days without measurable moisture. Timing and location of the next batch of moisture is a little uncertain. It's a difficult forecast, but one encouraging sign is that the forecast models agree stormy weather returns to the west coast. We are not sure if that big "L" in the West will make it all the way to Kansas, but pieces of it may break off and move our way. That's what we are banking on in an effort to hopefully bring some rain chances back to Kansas. Gulf of Mexico moisture starts pumping north on Monday, so we will watch and see how that plays into our rain chances during the week.

When is our first freeze coming? I've been asked this question quite a bit lately, and all I can say is it doesn't look like it's anytime soon. Even if we get a storm toward the end of next week, the amount of cold air with the storm is lacking. So for now, I'd say our first freeze is easily 10-14 days away (perhaps even more)

One Facebook post I saw yesterday was a little alarming. It comes from some source in Oklahoma already talking about a snowstorm in the Plains around November 2nd. This seems VERY unlikely, even if we have a storm forming nearby. There isn't much cold air showing up on the models right now (even in the long range), so any post you see on social media suggesting snow, I'd hesitate to believe it.

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