Wednesday, May 11, 2016

A break from severe - but still very active

Wednesday is here and as we move closer to one of the busiest times of the year for graduations and soon Memorial Day, our weather continues to be very active. However, active in this case doesn't necessarily mean severe weather. In fact, as I mentioned yesterday, there's a pretty good chance we won't see too many severe storms in Kansas over the next 7-10 days. That's comforting in what is otherwise known as the peak of our severe weather season around here. 

Tonight - few showers in the southwest. Doesn't look like anything heavy

Thursday - sunny and quiet

Friday - Next strong cold front coming in from the north. Some scattered storms may pop up along the front, especially east of a Hays to Dodge City line. The storms won't be around for very long and it's not looking like they'll be severe. 

Weekend- The pattern is about to shift again and our upper level winds will be coming from the northwest instead of the southwest (which is what we've had recently)  If you look at the map below, you can see a rather extensive area of cool air in the northern US, and some of that air is breaking loose and coming south. While most of the weekend will probably be dry for you, it will be much cooler with highs mainly in the 60s. (that will be 10-15 degrees cooler than average)

Early next week (May 16-18) - There is a storm coming from the Pacific Northwest that will be coming through the Plains. Expect increased chances for rain from Sunday night through at least Wednesday. It stays cloudy and naturally because of that, cooler than normal weather continues.

Late week (May 19-21) - It should be warming up and drying out. Weather calms down for a bit.

May 22/23 - Pattern changes again to more of a southwest flow aloft and that will likely mean chances for some rain will return. I would expect the chances for severe storms will be back, but they will probably be more scattered (rather than statewide)

May 25-27 - There's potential for severe weather leading up to the Memorial Day holiday. We should keep an eye on this time frame as some of the models suggest a stormy setup either Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. This far out, the date could change, but it's something we will be looking at moving forward.

Memorial Day weekend - It's looking like we may have some quiet, very warm weather around for the holiday. Sounds good, doesn't it? 

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