Thursday, May 5, 2016

Mother's Day weekend storm - some severe

Good Thursday morning. We've had some very nice weather in Kansas this week. The wind hasn't been too bad and the humidity has been under control too.

Weekend Setup:
A slow moving storm system will be coming into Kansas very soon. The storm is coming on shore Thursday night and as it moves east, it will be less organized and weakening some. One limiting factor to severe storms on Saturday will be the humidity. Rich, Gulf of Mexico moisture is a key ingredient in severe weather forecasting (and widespread, heavier rainfall), but higher humidity doesn't come into play until we get closer to Sunday. Take a look at forecast dew points Saturday afternoon. Several locations will be getting back into the 50s (high enough for storms), but dew points above 60 is usually necessary for more significant severe storms.

Slight risk for severe storms over northwest and some of north central Kansas. There will be a front stretched out along I-70 and late in the afternoon (and through the evening), storms will be favored near the front. Anybody along and north of I-70 should be watching for hail and wind producing storms Saturday evening. Farther south (into southwest Kansas) an isolated storm may develop, but this appears to be a little less favorable.

The chance for severe storms will be spreading to the eastern half of Kansas. It looks like areas east of a line from Russell to Dodge City will have a chance for severe weather. Main threats will once again be some hail and high winds.

Happy Cinco de Mayo!!

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