Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Forecast into June - some quiet/some stormy

We've had just an incredible stretch of stormy weather in Kansas. It's not a huge surprise when you consider May is one of our wetter months and usually a busy month with tornadoes. There is about to be a major shift in the storm track (jet stream) and it's going to give us all a break from wet weather.

The wet weather has removed the drought from Kansas (latest drought monitor out on May 24th)

So here's the change taking place. Last week, our upper level winds were coming straight out of the southwest, which led to day after day of storms. Now, we have two things working against the chance for storms: 1) Front pushing most moisture south of Kansas 2) Building high pressure to our west.

Look at the pattern by the end of the week. Models continue to develop a rather large area of high pressure across the Rockies. This shoves the jet stream back up across the northern US, which points to dry conditions. It's not marked on the map, but there is also a weak low down in Texas that will keep a great deal of moisture south of us too.

Early next week:
High pressure continues to control the weather west of Kansas. Upper level winds are still out of the north, so more dry weather coming for our first full week of June.

Around June 10:
Looks like a storm will setup across the western US, which will shift the upper level winds back to the southwest. While this doesn't guarantee the rain will be back in Kansas, it does start to increase the chances for storms across the Plains. So this will be a time period to watch.

June 17:
The upper level winds will continue from the southwest, so there could be a stormy setup right into the middle of the month.

Wheat harvest is just a few weeks away for some, so let's see if Mother Nature will cooperate with the farmers as they get ready for one of the busiest times of year.

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