Tuesday, August 2, 2016

An outlook for August

Thanks for spending a little time reading the blog today. It is Election Day and for many heading to the polls, we will be braving the heat. I suppose by this point of the summer, most of us are getting used to it and know how to beat the heat, but we still have to be on guard for heat illness. 

At the risk of getting some backlash over making some kind of prediction like this, I'm going to follow through with it and update it as we see fit. There is a particular kind of computer model that we have access to, called an "ensemble" that can help us look farther into the future. It helps us figure out patterns and trends, and based on that, we can make some kind of prediction weeks out. I'm not able to forecast specifics for each day, but by looking at the patterns, we can make a forecast with some degree of confidence. 



Beginning of August:
The most recent stretch of hot weather should roll on for several more days. In fact, it may linger into the middle of next week. During this period, I'm expecting most of our temperatures will be at or above normal (mainly 90s and some 100s). There will be occasional chances for rain, but they look to remain scattered. A front arriving Thursday night/Friday (Aug 4/5) will be one of the better chances here at the start of the month.

Next weekend (Aug 9/10): Some possibility of a storm system coming through the northern Plains, driving a cold front down across Kansas. This may lead to storms and a bit of a cool down. It's unclear what kind of rainfall amounts we may be looking at.

Aug 16-18:
The dome of high pressure will try to return. It doesn't look overly strong, but it may lead to a brief hot spell in the middle of the month. 

Aug 20-24: I'm expecting the weather may turn active again. The dome of high pressure will get shoved out of the area altogether and we may get some much cooler weather coming our way. How long it will last and how much cooler is somewhat uncertain, but I think we could have some more comfortable weather coming our way. We should have some pretty good chances for rain toward the end of the month too, but once again, I'm not able to forecast specifics right now. 

I enjoy making longer range predictions because I think some of the data available to us is better now than it ever has been. It is definitely a challenge but as we move through the month, I'll keep you updated on any changes that will be coming our way. 

3 comments:

Tiffany said...

Our gardens and electric bill would love some cooler weather! Here's to hoping your prediction is correct!

chris eskam said...

I'm ready for snow!

Anonymous said...

Thanks Ross. I appreciate you sharing this! I sure hope the model holds up and we get a cool end of August.

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