Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Labor Day / September Forecast

Some places have just had way too much rain in the month of August. As we mentioned last week, Wichita is experiencing the 4th wettest August on record. Other places are recording some remarkable amounts of rain too. Monsoon moisture has been feeding into the central US. Take a look at this latest satellite image and you can see the connection. The moisture plume keeps coming, but changes will show up soon. Drier air and slightly cooler air will settle south for the end of the week, which will shut down the rain maker for awhile.

At the beginning of August, I put out a month long outlook and it had some success. Forecasting 20-30 days out is quite challenging and we don't know exactly what each and every day will bring, but we can look for trends. So that's what I've done here. I'm just trying to give you an idea of what I see in the long range forecast.

First of all, let me say this. September is looking like a warm month for Kansas. There will be a few stretches of cooler weather when we get some rain, but I think you're going to see several warm spells. This is the time of year that warm usually means upper 80s/low 90s. We are passed the point of worrying about 100 degree heat. It would be extremely unlikely to get that hot considering how wet/green everything is.

We will see several fronts coming through, but it looks like behind each one of them, there will be a tendency to warm up fairly quickly. And there will be a couple of cases where high pressure will build up and we will have warm stretches.

Weather pattern setup September 23
So take a look at the calendar and use it as a guide. Fall begins on the 22nd at 9:21 A.M. The jet stream will be strengthening and before long, we will be noticing stronger storms and stronger cold fronts that will send us into the fall season. This is a very exciting time of year watching the dramatic changes taking place in the atmosphere.

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