Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Early fall weather - looking into September/Kansas State Fair

We are just 36 days away from the first day of fall and the weather is beginning to change. The jet stream winds (up about 30,000 feet) are starting to get stronger and the fronts will continue to get stronger. Fall is my favorite season because of the radical changes that occur in the atmosphere.

Throughout the week, we've been advertising a strong cold front that will usher in some early autumn air by the weekend. The forecast is fairly complex and we will have to try and pin down exactly when the rain moves in and when it moves out. It's not 100% clear yet how much cloudiness we will have this weekend, which will impact the temperatures even more. Confidence is very high though that most of us will have highs in the 70s for both Saturday and Sunday. This fall-like weather is going to blanket a big chunk of the central and northern Plains. As you look at the following maps, where you see the blue, that indicates a cooler airmass (red would indicate warmer air)

The unusual cool snap will ease early next week, but we are not headed for any big heat waves for the rest of the summer. I would expect the nice weather will continue with highs mainly in the 80s for the first half of next week. We are looking at some wet/stormy weather late next week (around August 25/26), and more cool weather expected for the final weekend in August. 

There should be a little bit of a warm up right at the end of the month where highs will likely climb back through the 80s to near 90.

Early September isn't very clear just yet, but some of the data is suggesting we could have wet weather to start the month. The first 10 days will be interesting as a developing storm takes aim at the western half of the country. This could be GREAT news for the wildfire situation across California. How will that storm impact us in Kansas? We will be watching it closely. I do feel confident in saying that as we approach mid September, warmer weather will be coming back! So don't put away the shorts just yet. Warmer than normal weather could show up during the Kansas State Fair. 

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