Just 5 days until Christmas and we are now 99% certain there will not be a white Christmas this year. You may not necessarily feel it yet, but there is so much warm air flooding up into the Plains for the holiday weekend. It's kinda hard to believe after having so much cold weather recently and record low temperatures, but the pattern is changing very quickly.
Last night at 10 p.m. we talked about two possible storm track for the Christmas storm. Track #1 looks like it's going to be the winner. And not only do we have rain in the forecast but THUNDERSTORMS too. Yes... this is incredible for late December. Look at the dew points (measure of moisture in the air) for Christmas Day. Normally, we don't see 50+ dew points in Kansas until closer to spring. But with that kind of humidity pumping north and a powerful storm coming from the west, we maybe seeing lightning and hearing some thunder. Watch out Santa.
As for how much rain we might get. one forecast model is giving some parts of the area .50" or more. This could be a good soaking rain unless the track of the storm ends up too far north or east. In that case, the heavier rainfall might miss us to the east.
So there is a lot to look at and consider heading into Christmas weekend. But if you have plans to travel from Kansas, the weather shouldn't be too hard on you. As for a white Christmas, we will just have to try again next year.