Monday, June 27, 2016

Severe chances return - difficult forecast ahead

Welcome to Monday and the start of a difficult week of forecasting in Kansas weather. It will also be a difficult week for cutting wheat in Kansas too, so for the farmers still trying to harvest, I wish I had better news.

June is coming to a close very quickly, and it has been a very warm month. Take a look. Every day this month has been above normal except for June 1st in Wichita. We haven't had many record highs, just several days of 90 degree heat.

Pattern Changes This Week:
So why is this a tough week for forecasting? The setup favors a weak high pressure system over the Four Corners area through the end of the week with northwest winds coming down over Kansas. So anything that develops out in Colorado, Nebraska, or Wyoming will have a chance of moving into our state. This is a pattern that meteorologists grumble about because it's so tough to pin down the "where and when" questions. It's almost impossible to answer some of those questions more than two days out, but as always, we look at the new data and give it our best shot.

Monday evening/night: Best chance for storms will be in western Kansas, likely west of a Russell to Pratt line. Main threat will be damaging winds to 65 mph and heavy rainfall.

Tuesday: Storms will likely move out or dissipate early in the day.

Tuesday Night: A big batch of storms will develop in Nebraska, Wyoming, and South Dakota, and then roll southeast in Kansas (maybe not until Wednesday morning). These storms will likely be big wind producers, so keep this in mind, especially over northern Kansas.

There will be more storm chances coming throughout the week. 

Here is a forecast for rainfall through Wednesday:

And another forecast for total rainfall through Friday evening

This is  just a rough estimate of how much you could get, not a guarantee.

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