Here's the outlook:
Setup: A couple of features we are watching carefully today include a dry line (separation between humid air and dry air) and a warm front that will be lifting north across Kansas. We expect these features will play a role in where storms begin to develop. The dry line will stretch from around Dodge City down into western Oklahoma. The warm front will be moving into central Kansas late in the afternoon.
|This graphic shows the separation between humid and dry air... quite notable down across western Oklahoma|
If we have a bunch of storms close together on the radar, the chance of tornadoes could be reduced. This is something that could work to our advantage if it turns out that way.
Storms will likely start firing up by 4 p.m., especially for northern and western Oklahoma. Everything will move to the north or northeast, and I would expect that no later than 5 p.m., we will have storms in southern Kansas.
|5 p.m. Thursday|
|This is what the radar might look like at 9 p.m. tonight|
As the severe weather diminishes after midnight, the concern for heavier rainfall will roll on, especially for central and eastern Kansas.
Just a note for Friday - the chance for severe storms doesn't go away tomorrow. We have another round of some severe weather that is expected for central and eastern Kansas Friday afternoon. It looks like the severe storms will be gone by late Friday night.