Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Stormy pattern - Arctic outbreak watch

Welcome to Tuesday and hopefully it hasn't been too tough getting back into the swing of things.

This has turned out to be the warmest November on record for a lot of places. So many 70 degree days, even some record highs this month. It's been incredible to see such warmth at a time of year when we normally begin to see snow.

Couple of features to watch now:

Storm developing at the end of the week:
Forecast models have a very healthy storm dropping into the desert Southwest at the end of this week. It looks like this could be a wet storm across the south, but if the track of the storm changes at all, Kansas could get in on some of the moisture. One computer models keeps almost all of the moisture south of us, while another one (which has been more consistent), continues to bring some very light precipitation into southern Kansas. If the moisture does make it to Kansas, some of it could be very light snow. This doesn't really look like a storm we have to worry too much about.

Sunday will be another day to watch as the storm system finally kicks out of the southern Plains. Once again, if the track changes very much, it will impact the forecast.

I think we can safely issue an Arctic outbreak watch for next week. The first big batch of MUCH colder air is headed down this way. This is the part of the pattern we expect will repeat many times this winter and why we went with cold forecast for the upcoming winter season. Highs will be dropping to the 20s and wind chills much lower. I'm also seeing signs of a potential snow event in the middle of next week too, but let's not get overly excited about that yet. There's a lot that can change between now and then. But now is the time to get ready for some major cold coming next week.

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