Tuesday, November 1, 2016

November is here, but where is fall?

We just wrapped up a very weird, warm month of October. All month long, the story was basically the same with temperatures warmer than normal.

So where does that leave us heading into November? And what about winter? The official start is just a month and a half away! We have been watching the trends in the long range computer models and here's what I think we should be ready for.

Nov 1 - 10th: 
There's a very good chance that most of this period will continue to have mild weather (meaning highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows in the 30s/40s) - 80s would be highly unlikely.

I'm expecting there will be a storm in the central Plains during the middle of next week that will put us in a cooler stretch of weather. It may end up cloudy with highs only in the 50s and low 60s. Whether or not this storm brings any rain is kinda iffy. I'm leaning toward no rain... but definitely feeling more like November.

2nd full week of November (14-18): I'm convinced our weather will be turning much cooler during this time. I've been watching several different model runs that showcase chilly air coming straight down from the north that may put us in a stretch of below normal temperatures for a change. Unfortunately, this looks like a dry pattern for the middle of the month, so western Kansas may not get much moisture during this time. Look at the map below. There should be a ridge (squiggly line) developing in the west, and if that happens, much chillier weather should slide right down the east side of the Rockies.

Pattern heading into middle November

3rd full week of November (including Thanksgiving Day):

I think this will be a chilly week too. Some of the forecast data shows a potential storm around the weekend BEFORE Thanksgiving, but we should have a mostly quiet week leading up to Thanksgiving. Temperatures will likely be close to normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s/30s.

The winter forecast is coming together and we will release it on November 7th. We are still studying so many different pieces of the pattern and trying to make sense of it all.

Have a great day!

No comments:

Blog History