Thursday, November 10, 2016

Where is winter & potential storm next week

We had a call yesterday in the storm center from someone who was seriously upset because colder weather had not made it to Kansas yet. As I mentioned Monday night on the air and here on the blog, colder weather is coming and it looks like the pattern is on the verge of getting more active. The real problem is the computer models beyond about 6 or 7 days are really struggling to get an understanding of what's happening. We get updates from some of the computer models 4 times a day, and sometimes they are vastly different from one to another.

No storms can punch through this block over the Rockies

There's no chance for any kind of moisture around here through at least the middle of next week. Part of what's going on is there is essentially a "log jam" right over the central and southern Plains. It meteorology, we call it a Rex Block. High pressure over a low pressure and anything coming in from the west coast just can't get through. These kinds of setups can last awhile (sometimes a week or more). So we are waiting for the block to get out of our area so storms can approach from the west. We need moisture in western Kansas, and you don't get it with the kind of setup we've had this week.

We are about to see more ups and downs in temperatures.

Thursday - mild (around 70)
Friday - much cooler (highs mainly in the 50s)
Saturday A.M. - another potential hard freeze over western, central, and northern Kansas.
Early next week - Another warm up is coming!! Highs will get back into the 70s with sunshine and no sign of any rain.

Next chance for a storm:
We've been seeing this on the longer range models for awhile now, but confidence in what happens is low this far out. This could be a significant winter storm for the northern Plains. If some of the data is correct, a blizzard is possible much farther north (a long way from Kansas). Right now for Kansas, I'd be expecting the coldest air of the fall season to arrive at the end of next week AND tremendous wind. We will learn so much more about this storm early next week once it finally forms. In the meantime, enjoy the great fall weather because colder air is on the maps and it will get here before long (ready or not)

Much of the United States is snow-free now. That's not necessarily unusual considering how much of the country has been VERY warm. The snow cover across Canada is expanding and will likely grow quite a bit the week of Thanksgiving.

1 comment:

Diana said...

I'm enjoying this wonderful weather! I don't like the harsh cold of winter... but I don't like the really hot summer either. LOL! (Typical Kansan.) So, I will take the in-betweens when it's here! Thanks for the great explanations as always, Ross! Hi to Millie!

Blog History