Thursday, May 29, 2014

Possible heavy rains soon

We continue to have some very humid air around central and eastern Kansas. Millie and I try to squeeze in a 30 minute walk every morning and you find out how little you have to do to work up a sweat. It's harder for your body to evaporate sweat into the air when there is already so much moisture in it (making it a little more difficult to cool off). Because of the higher humidity, we could see a few pop up storms today and again Friday, but they will be so hit-and-miss that most of us won't see anything at all.
Drought monitor week to week comparison
The new drought monitor is out for the week so we get a chance to see what kind of impact the holiday weekend rainfall had on the state. Quite honestly, I don't think there is any change to the map. We had some heavy rainfall in southeast Kansas, but some of it may not have been widespread enough to change the map much. Where we still, desperately need moisture is along the Oklahoma state line, and out into western Kansas where most of the rains have been very spotty.

Forecast rainfall from today - June 7
That leads me to this good news. I posted a similar graphic last week with a 5-6 day forecast for rainfall and it actually verified quite well. We are transitioning back to an active pattern where we may have several rounds of storms beginning Saturday night for some, but more likely Sunday - Wednesday (June 4). It could go beyond that date too, but forecasting skill drops quite a bit beyond 8 or 9 days. They will be the kind of storms that develop late in the evening and continue into the night, producing mainly wind and heavy rains. If the forecast model is right, much of Kansas, including both northern and southern Kansas, will have a chance of more drought-impacting rains. Remember, this is a forecast and not a guarantee and I'll keep updating it as we get closer. But I'm just sharing some of the data with you that we see in the weather office that gives us hope that we could ease the drought even more heading into early June. Tomorrow we will look at the potential for severe storms over the weekend.

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