Thursday, March 3, 2016

Rainfall forecast and a severe weather potential

We continue to advertise a big change in the weather pattern for next week, and the chance for much needed moisture to return to Kansas. That change is still in the works and it's going to be a huge storm system, but will we get very much rainfall out of it? 

Rainfall from Sunday - Wednesday
Right now, I think some of our best chances will come Monday afternoon/evening, and then again Tuesday. If we look at one forecast model for rainfall from Sunday - Wednesday, it does show some areas of Kansas getting an inch of rain, primarily over south central and southeast Kansas. The heaviest rainfall will be somewhat scattered, so not everyone will see the higher totals. The biggest problem here is that the main storm system will be tracking so far south that the heavy, widespread soaking rains will end up in eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas. I know we will be grateful for whatever moisture we do get, but despite the size of this incoming storm, it's a little disappointing to see how much of Kansas will be missed by heavier precipitation.

Severe Weather Chance: We do expect some strong storms Monday evening. Although they will be scattered and many of them below severe limits, here is a map showing where the highest severe potential will be Monday afternoon/evening.

Chance of Snow: None!!! Can you believe we have a HUGE storm system developing in early March and not even a chance for snowflakes anywhere in our area. The main rain/snow line is WAY up north along the Canadian/US border. Very impressive, but it goes along with this incredibly warm pattern that we've been on now for 3-4 weeks. 

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