Good Monday morning and welcome to the first full week of March. We've had a long drought of stormy weather in the Plains. Most of the systems have either gone north or south of us, leaving us high and dry for over a month in places.
The latest weather pattern change is allowing a storm system to slide into northern Mexico. There is a nice stream of Gulf moisture flowing north into the central US, but we would need more in order for this to be a significant severe weather setup. One of the factors contributing to the potential for severe storms is the amount of wind coming in from the south/southwest. This strong wind helps storms produce hail once they develop, but there are other factors working against the chance for rain. So this setup just doesn't favor widespread severe weather.
There will be a chance for some rain Tuesday over south central and eastern Kansas, but amounts will likely be under .25" and the storms will not be severe.
We are watching a HUGE low pressure system in the upper atmosphere over northern Mexico and south Texas. It will take days for it to finally move on, and when it does, it will lift to the northeast. This could help produce some rain Friday evening for southeast Kansas. Our weather pattern is VERY different this week, but we are still on the short end of the rainfall setup. Hope this will change soon to ease the fire danger setups.