Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Major Nor'easter - when is it our turn for active weather?

As the Northeast gets slammed with a major winter storm today, we sit back, watch and wait for the next chance for moisture here in the Plains. What's interesting is that we are on the western edge of the cold air that is helping create the snow flying east of us. This big pocket of bitter cold will continue to move east in the coming days, so we will see a return to spring-like weather by the end of the week.

When will it be our turn for stormy weather?
The pattern isn't going to be very helpful in producing stormy weather in Kansas for at least another 5-6 days. However, most of the forecast models are showing a return to a more active weather setup heading into next week. I expect a series of western storms to arrive beginning about Wednesday (March 22) and continuing into our first weekend of spring. As far as how much precipitation we might get is unclear, but I'm going to show you two model predictions. This is total rainfall accumulation between now and next Thursday night (March 23). There are differences, but at least they are showing something for our area. We could be looking at the possibility of at least two different systems coming through Kansas.

European model

American (GFS model)

I don't expect a ton of precipitation, but it could be more than double what some have had in the last two months. As I mentioned last week, Kansas hasn't been in the right spot for generous rains (or snows for that matter) and we are getting to the crucial time of year when we need to start getting the precipitation. Spring, after all, is typically our wettest times of the year. 

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