I'll walk you through what I'm seeing over the next 10 days.
Storm #1: There's a very small chance for an isolated severe storm Thursday evening across western Kansas. A wind gust up to 60 mph is possible along with some brief hail, but this window of opportunity for severe weather is likely just a few hours. Once we get to sunset, that will likely be the end of the stronger storms.
Rainfall amounts will mostly be .25" or less, but far northwest Kansas (around Goodland and Colby) could get more (around .50") AND areas east of the Flint Hills will likely see some .50-1".
Storm #2: The severe chance with this particular event is very low. This system should arrive toward the end of the weekend with rain expected over the southern half of the state. We may not get much moisture out of this system either, but it will be a feature to watch later on in the weekend.
Storm #3: Arriving next Tuesday/Wednesday, this will be a storm that has the potential of producing some nice rains around the area. Depending on the track and how much Gulf moisture it can intercept, we will see how things pan out for the central Plains. But some of the models are hinting at some .50-1" amounts during the middle of next week (March 28-29)
Finally, Storm #4: If the models are correct, March may go out like a tame lion. What might be the last in a series of storms will be arriving right around the end of the month. There are indications of heavier rains with this storm, but it's way too early to know exactly what will take place. It's still more than a week away and a storm that isn't even reality yet.
The most important takeaway here is that IF you don't get the amount of rain you were hoping for on Thursday or Friday (of this week), don't be too upset. We have several more chances heading our way, and after waiting more than 2 months, I'd say we are overdue.