Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Crazy winds - stormy weather returns - long range forecast

We've made it to Wednesday and survived the windiest day for the week (that was yesterday) So many questions about why it's been so windy lately. Here are some of the latest stats since March 1st.
In the last 36 days, 25 of them have had peak wind gusts of 30 mph or stronger!! Yes, it has been extremely windy and so many instances lately of the wind not bringing any moisture to the Plains.

Happening Now:
The winds in the upper atmosphere are coming straight down from the northwest and that is not a good pattern to be in when you need moisture like we do here in Kansas. Winter temperatures continue across the Great Lakes and the upper Midwest. That cold stuff will likely stay away from Kansas, so I don't think there's any threat to our growing season.

This weekend:
A series of storms will be coming from the Pacific and our storm track will shift back to the southwest. The Gulf of Mexico will FINALLY open back up, and eventually, this will help to increase the rain potential around the middle of the country (INCLUDING KANSAS)! The first system will approach Saturday, and it's going to fall apart before it gets here. The second system arrives at the end of the weekend, and will combine with a front that should help produce scattered showers and storms just about anywhere in the state. It may not be widespread, heavy rainfall, but lets see how things develop and change in the next few days.

Forecast (Monday/Tuesday, April 11-12)
Rain chances will likely be ending late Monday afternoon for Kansas. Tuesday is shaping up to be mainly dry too. We could be in between systems during that time.

European Model
GFS (American Model)
Potential Severe Weather Setup Late Next week (around April 15/16)
Forecast models are showing a large, developing storm system toward the end of the week. Both models that we consider heavily when making a forecast suggest a big storm system will setup over the western part of the US AND push into the Plains before falling apart. We've seen this setup before and it didn't do anything for Kansas because the system weakened before making it into the central US. But this one looks different, and we could see a severe weather setup within the next 10-14 days. Details to come! 

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