Monday, April 11, 2016

Frustrating pattern... but look at this!!

Good Monday morning! I realize that most of us are extremely frustrated with the recent weather patterns and the fact that Kansas has been missed by so many storms and the needed rainfall. Seems like all we get is wind! Sunday night, the heavier rainfall setup over southeast Kansas and down into Oklahoma. When is this going to change??

Concern for tonight/early Tuesday - FROST
Skies will clear and temperatures will drop quickly as the winds die down too. Lows will fall to around 30 in many spots, so tender plants will be susceptible. AND the wheat crop could be damaged too. This is not the kind of thing we want after having so much early season warmth.

Looking ahead... (click on images to make them larger)
Last week, I alerted you to a big storm that would be coming into the Plains for the end of this week and potential for severe weather returning to Kansas. We continue to see a very strong possibility of a BIG storm setting up over the Rockies going into the weekend. Yes, the chance for some severe weather is possible looking ahead to the weekend, but what may be more of a headline is the likelihood of widespread, soaking rainfall for more than just a handful of people

This big system won't arrive until next weekend, so we have a lot of time to analyze and watch the progress. Models are showing some of the first rain/thunder getting into western Kansas Friday night. Much of the heavier rainfall Saturday should be in western Kansas. Then the chances will spread east into Sunday. We haven't seen a setup like this since the Thanksgiving storm that produced widespread moisture and icy weather. We don't expect ice (obviously in April), but a slow moving, strong, upper level storm system is exactly what this part of the country needs. This will likely be a multi-day event with rain chances extending over 3-4 days for some areas. 
Both forecast models that get a lot of attention have widespread 1-3 inches of rain across western Kansas. It's even higher in isolated spots. 

GFS Rainfall forecast (next weekend)
European Model rainfall forecast

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