Friday, April 29, 2016

Forecast for May... what's next?

Friday is here and maybe a little hard to believe that we've reached the end of April already. This has been a very generous month of rainfall for us in Kansas. Some areas may have had too much rain, but other areas still need more. Most of the state started the month out well below normal on moisture, but with a few good storms, we are catching up.

Compare the two drought maps (one from the beginning of April and the other from just this week)
The latest drought monitor does not include the heavy rainfall that some parts of Kansas had Tuesday.

So what's coming next as we head into May?

You might recall a few weeks back that in a blog posting, I said after May 3rd, we'd hit some drier and calmer weather for awhile. That still holds true. We have one more system that will come through Monday that might develop some light rain (nothing heavy), and once it slides out, we warm up and dry out. But how long will the drier weather last?

Here's a breakdown:

May 1-3: Unsettled weather continues with a chance for some rain Monday (May 2)

May 4-7: Dry and much warmer. We should go back to above normal temperatures for most of the state

May 8-11: We could have a fairly intense storm system coming through around Mother's Day. This doesn't look like a major severe weather maker for Kansas, but there will be at least a chance for some severe storms to return to the Plains. And there will be more rain coming too.

May 12-16: This period of May looks rather quiet too. Our temperatures will likely be near normal with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. It doesn't look like there will be any big storms coming through during this time. The jet stream should flatten out, which will likely mean some drier (uneventful) weather for much of the area.

May 17-20: It's looking like this stretch of May will be dry and warmer.

May 21-24: Possible storm system setting up across the desert Southwest for this part of May. The jet stream is forecast to take on a more southwest flow aloft, and that could result in potential stormy weather returning to Kansas and surrounding areas. It's not clear if this will mean severe weather, but this will be a period in May that we will have to watch closely to see if something develops out of the pattern change.

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