Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Nice weather leading up to a big storm

Welcome to Tuesday. I expect that many of you reading the blog are interested to know if our weekend storm is still on track. And is the heavier rainfall still expected to arrive in Kansas?

There are essentially two systems to watch over the next 8-10 days. The first one is going to pass just south of us through Wednesday. It will likely stir up more severe storms in Texas. Storms yesterday just whacked the Dallas metro area with baseball size hail. Look at some of the photos posted on Twitter yesterday.

courtesy Roger Edwards
After the passage of system #1, all eyes will turn to system #2 that is about to move into the western US. The key to this setup is that the storm will stall over the Rockies into the weekend and won't move very much until Monday. Some strong storms will be possible, but the likelihood of a severe weather outbreak seems low for a couple of reasons. First, skies will be cloudy (keeping the atmosphere cooler and less supportive of bad storms). Second, the upper level winds will be weakening some too, lowering the chances of very large hail and tornadoes.

But RAIN RAIN RAIN... look at the latest forecast models on potential amounts this weekend. Don't focus on exact amounts. The overall idea here is widespread, soaking moisture is expected soon. Get your rain gauges ready!

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