Monday, April 4, 2016

Drought expanding - pattern shifting throughout the week

It's our first full week of April and a time when we are normally talking April showers. Instead, everything continues to go around our state and the drought is expanding. We have several counties that have moved into "moderate drought" as the "abnormally dry" areas also continue to expand. If you look at the graphic below, you can see the deficits since March 1st. What little moisture we have had won't go very far now that the growing season is getting underway. 

Tuesday: There will be a chance for a few showers/storms Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.25" or less seem likely. This is a system coming from the Pacific Northwest, and this is not a favorable setup for us to see widespread rains. It's also not looking like a severe weather setup, even though some of the storms may produce some small hail and gusty winds.

Midweek: The pattern will remain with a northwest wind flow aloft. This means more dry weather for the end of the week. 
Jet Stream for Thursday - not favorable for rainfall
Late weekend: There are a couple of storm systems that will push in from the Pacific. Initially, the first system will likely weaken and spread clouds into Kansas by Saturday. The second system could be stronger and could help to produce some scattered showers and storms into Kansas by Sunday/Monday of next week. 

Pattern changing over the weekend
As I mentioned last week, the long range models haven't been very encouraging for widespread rains. However, let's keep an eye on the setup at the end of the weekend to see if it develops into something that could be beneficial for us.

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