Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Look at what the models have for the weekend

Just a couple days to go before the storm gets here and the rain arrives for parts of Kansas. YES!! It is coming and I know the waiting game is hard to play. Many areas of the state need the moisture.

When was the last time we had such big amounts of moisture??

Last 1"+ of moisture:
Wichita: December 13th, 2015 (1.01")
Garden City: October 22, 2015 (1.58")
Goodland: May 19, 2015 (1.55")
Salina: December 13, 2015 (2.30")

Last 2"+ of moisture:
Wichita: November 26, 2015 (2.17")
Garden City: June 28, 2014 (4.37")
Goodland: April 16, 2015 (2.08")
Salina: December 13, 2015 (2.30")

We had another close call with a storm passing by to the south of Kansas overnight. There was severe weather in Texas (again!!) and some heavier rainfall. Texas should have a VERY green spring and summer with all of the El Nino fueled rains they've had over the last 5-6 months.

So the big weekend storm is just now coming into the West now. It will continue to dive to the south and then stall right over the Rockies. Any other storm season, this could be a HUGE severe weather maker, but because the Gulf of Mexico moisture will be somewhat limited, we don't expect a great deal of severe storms in the Plains this weekend. There is a slight risk for some hail and wind Friday evening in far western Kansas, but the main focus will be on the heavier precipitation.

Here's an updated look at the rainfall forecast from the two computer models I've been showing through the week. The European model and the GFS (American model) continue to show big rains. Don't focus too much on the exact numbers. Use the data to get an overall sense of where the heavier amounts will be. And the rain should be heavy all over the place. Please be patient. Big storms like this take their own sweet time. Sometimes the onset of the rain can be delayed... but it is coming!
European model
GFS Model

No comments:

Blog History