Friday: High pressure is coming in, so the wind goes down - still looking dry
Saturday: Looking dry, but take a look to the south because one key ingredient in rainfall is Gulf of Mexico moisture. It's moving north through Texas and Oklahoma. We measure this moisture using the dew point - and when it gets above 45 or 50, it's encouraging for rain chances. We may not see those kinds of dew points until Saturday night/Sunday.
Sunday: Most of the day will be dry and quite warm. Highs will likely reach the low to mid 80s (so a summerlike day is expected). Once we get to the evening, here are the important factors:
1) Storm approaching in the upper atmosphere
2) Gulf moisture in place
3) A front in the area
The setup will favor spotty storms in western Kansas by Sunday night, with higher rain chances (and more widespread moisture) the farther east you go. Right now, the severe threat is rather low for the end of the weekend.
|European model for rainfall|
|GFS (American model)|
Caution!! The models have not come into agreement as to how much rain we will get. See for yourself. One model has heavier rain farther south, while another model has it north. Let's continue to watch the new data coming in today and Friday to figure out who the lucky ones will be. This weekend setup is so encouraging because we have a Gulf of Mexico connection, but if the front moves through too fast, we could be in trouble.