Thursday, April 7, 2016

Rain chances not far off now

Thanks for spending a little time here on the blog. It's exciting with the weekend getting closer and our next chances for rain not far off now. We have had SO many windy days lately because our storm track has been active. Several low pressure systems have moved through, but we haven't been in the right place for any kind of significant moisture (we just get the wind and changing temperatures)

Friday: High pressure is coming in, so the wind goes down - still looking dry

Saturday: Looking dry, but take a look to the south because one key ingredient in rainfall is Gulf of Mexico moisture. It's moving north through Texas and Oklahoma. We measure this moisture using the dew point - and when it gets above 45 or 50, it's encouraging for rain chances. We may not see those kinds of dew points until Saturday night/Sunday.

Sunday: Most of the day will be dry and quite warm. Highs will likely reach the low to mid 80s (so a summerlike day is expected). Once we get to the evening, here are the important factors:
1) Storm approaching in the upper atmosphere
2) Gulf moisture in place
3) A front in the area
The setup will favor spotty storms in western Kansas by Sunday night, with higher rain chances (and more widespread moisture) the farther east you go. Right now, the severe threat is rather low for the end of the weekend.
European model for rainfall
GFS (American model)
Caution!! The models have not come into agreement as to how much rain we will get. See for yourself. One model has heavier rain farther south, while another model has it north. Let's continue to watch the new data coming in today and Friday to figure out who the lucky ones will be. This weekend setup is so encouraging because we have a Gulf of Mexico connection, but if the front moves through too fast, we could be in trouble. 

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